Gulf countries will turn to Turkish defense industry as US shield fails to protect, expert says

The attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, and Tehran's retaliation via Gulf countries, have opened the door to a new era. The long-held belief among regional states—led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—that "in case of trouble, the systems we purchased from the US would protect us" has collapsed.

Neither the countries mentioned nor other regional centers were able to fully intercept the missiles or kamikaze drones launched from Iran. Saudi Arabia's heavily protected oil facilities were struck. Smoke rose from Dubai, a city into which trillions of dollars have been invested for its global image. Qatar's vital gas production hub was also targeted.

Examples could be multiplied. At this very point, a multi-billion-dollar question has resurfaced: what kind of defense strategy will Gulf countries pursue during the reconstruction phase, after finding themselves unable to rely on US protection?

"POLITICAL CRISES ALSO AFFECTED THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY"

Defense industry expert Yusuf Akbaba opens a brief window into the past before assessing the current situation of Gulf countries. He recalls that cooperation in the defense industry had stalled due to political crises with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

He underlines that although relations with Qatar have been very close across many fields, the desired level has never been reached when it comes to the procurement of defense industry products. Similarly, he notes that the acquisition of Turkish defense industry products has remained limited in Bahrain and Oman as well.

"GULF COUNTRIES HAD BEEN CAUTIOUS TOWARD TÜRKİYE'S DEFENSE INDUSTRY"

"The Gulf has maintained a cautious stance toward Türkiye," Akbaba says. He explains that countries in the region sought to fill gaps in US procurement by turning to China, South Korea, and European suppliers, adding that in some areas Pakistan has also emerged as a key alternative.

Akbaba notes that until recently, a prevailing view in parts of the Gulf was that purchasing from Türkiye could further strengthen both its defense industry and its economy. However, after witnessing the developments between Iran, Israel, and the United States—and their direct impact on their own countries—he says they have been compelled to turn their attention to Ankara.

"THERE IS STRONG DEMAND FOR TÜRKİYE'S DEFENSE PRODUCTS"

Yusuf Akbaba explains that due to the urgent needs created by the current conflict environment, a large number of requests have been coming to Türkiye from Gulf countries. He concludes his remarks as follows:

"Despite the prejudices I mentioned earlier, Gulf countries will be compelled to turn to Türkiye. There are several reasons for this. First of all, Turkish defense industry products have proven themselves in the field and demonstrated highly significant capabilities.

But our strength alone is not enough. For example, one of the key potential alternatives is South Korea. However, especially in air defense systems, their domestic demand is very high, and the export contracts they have already signed are quite large. In other words, it is difficult for them to provide additional supply to the Gulf.

Another major option is China. Yet there are different problems there as well. Saudi Arabia was not satisfied with the laser weapon it procured from China, as it failed to deliver its promised performance in real-world conditions. Likewise, Chinese UAVs have not met expectations in this process.

At this very moment, Türkiye is experiencing a significant rise, particularly in air defense and missile systems. In UAVs, both our capacity and capabilities are already well established. In both areas, we are steadily increasing our production capacity. The Turkish defense industry's star is rising. I believe our country will become even more prominent. In the end, some Gulf countries may—perhaps reluctantly—be forced to purchase from Türkiye."