US fertility rate fell to record low in 2025, extending long-term decline

The US fertility rate fell to a new record low in 2025, continuing a nearly two-decade downward trend, according to new official data released Thursday.

The fertility rate fell to 53.1 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, down from 53.8 in 2024, the National Center for Health Statistics said. Total births also dropped 1% to about 3.6 million.

The decline has persisted since 2007, said The New York Times, initially linked to the economic impact of the Great Recession of 2007-2009. However, the continued drop has puzzled demographers, who say multiple social and economic factors are likely at play.

Teenage birth rates saw one of the sharpest declines, falling 7% from the previous year and dropping more than 70% since 2007. Experts say this reflects increased access to education and reproductive control, according to the Times.

At the same time, fertility rates rose among women in their 30s and 40s, suggesting many are delaying childbirth rather than foregoing it entirely.

Still, uncertainty remains. Nearly half of US women at age 30 are now childless, compared with 18% in the 1970s.

Experts warned that persistently low fertility could strain economic growth and social systems as the population ages, though immigration trends will also play a key role in shaping future demographics, the Times reported.

Immigrants typically have more children and have traditionally kept the overall birthrate up. The Trump administration's crackdown on immigrants already in the US and efforts to discourage immigration from many countries could fuel long-term drops in the birthrate.

US conservatives have warned of a demographic collapse and have urged the non-immigrant population to have more children.