The research, carried out by an international team of scientists, indicates that these new conditions have not been seen on Earth for millions of years and that there is no equivalent in the current ecosystem.
Over three decades of collected data demonstrates how trees and soil are reacting to the extremely high temperatures and drought conditions. This new "hypertropical" state implies that the forests are expanding well beyond today's tropical boundaries. Experts mention that this process is creating unprecedented stress on trees and significantly reducing the forests' capacity to absorb carbon dioxide.
Models based on data from the study predict that by the year 2100, these hot droughts will occur throughout the year, even during rainy seasons. The reduction in soil moisture is expected to trigger two main problems: "hydraulic failure," where air bubbles form in the tree trunks blocking water transport, and "carbon starvation," where trees close their leaf pores to conserve water, leading to a halt in photosynthesis. This scenario could increase tree mortality rates by up to 55%.
The study, particularly focusing on the extreme droughts experienced in 2015 and 2023, shows that trees growing fast with low wood density are more affected by this process. This situation poses the risk of the Amazon forests transitioning from being a "sink" that absorbs atmospheric carbon to a "source" that emits carbon due to dying trees.
Researchers predict that hypertropical forests will mostly emerge in the Amazon region, but similar formations might also appear in some areas of Africa and Asia. Scientists warn that the severity of this climatic transformation hinges directly on human activities and whether greenhouse gas emissions can be effectively controlled.
