Study: 40% of glaciers doomed despite climate action

Earth's glaciers are sounding the alarm. A new study reveals that even if global warming were to stop today, around 40% of the world's glaciers are already destined to vanish. Scientists estimate a 39% loss in glacier mass compared to 2020 levels—an irreversible process expected to raise sea levels by about 11 centimeters.

If current climate policies continue, that loss could reach up to 76%, spelling disaster for countries that rely on glaciers for drinking water, agriculture, and energy.

Published in Science, the study emphasizes that the difference between 39% and 76% loss could determine whether humanity can adapt to glacier loss. Glaciologist James Kirkham stated, "The difference means whether adaptation is even possible."

"EVERY 0.1 DEGREE MATTERS"

Led by Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck, the study found that every 0.1°C increase in temperature leads to roughly 2% more glacier loss. "We want to give hope," said Schuster, adding that reducing warming even slightly can help protect more glaciers.

FIRST LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS BEYOND 2100

Unlike previous studies that only projected through 2100, this research extended simulations centuries into the future, analyzing long-term glacier impacts. While projections varied between 15% and 55% depending on the model, all pointed to the same conclusion: continued melting.

Prof. Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir from the University of Iceland warned, "All models agree—more warming means more glacier loss."

According to the study, the regions at highest risk include Western Canada, the United States, Northeastern Canada, Scandinavia, and the Russian Arctic.