China's marriages plunge nearly 10% in 2026, raising fears of deeper birth crisis

China's marriage registrations plunged nearly 10% in the first nine months of 2026, raising concerns over a further decline in births as the country struggles with a deepening demographic crisis.

The country recorded 4.648 million marriages between January and September, down 504,000, or 9.8%, from a year earlier, according to Ministry of Civil Affairs data released Wednesday, the South China Morning Post reported Thursday.

The decline threatens to reverse a temporary rebound in marriages recorded in 2025.

He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong province, said the latest figures suggested full-year marriage registrations would likely fall again in 2026.

Fewer marriages could translate into fewer births in 2027, as childbirth in China remains closely associated with marriage.

China recorded just 7.92 million births in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The country's birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 people, its lowest since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949.

China's population also contracted by 3.39 million to approximately 1.405 billion in 2025, marking its fourth consecutive annual decline.

Beijing has introduced childcare subsidies, expanded preschool support and other incentives to encourage marriage and childbirth, but rising living costs and changing attitudes toward family formation continue to challenge those efforts.