Most Germans say Chancellor Friedrich Merz's reform drive is heading the wrong way, and the conservative leader has fallen to a personal low, a survey published on Thursday found, as the anti-immigrant AfD holds a clear lead in voting intentions.
The poll for public broadcaster ZDF found that 59% of respondents believe the coalition's planned and partly adopted changes to pensions, health care and long-term care are going in "the wrong direction." Only 30% said the measures are on the right track. Supporters of Merz's conservative CDU/CSU alliance were the only party camp with a majority in favor, at 66%.
Most voters were angry about what they saw as an unjust distribution of the costs. Some 80% said the burdens are distributed unfairly, against 12% who called the distribution fair. On the social-insurance changes, 77% said they do not believe the government will make an important contribution to solving the problems.
The poll asked how respondents view each politician, on appeal and record, from +5 (very positive) to −5 (very negative). Chancellor Merz scored −2.0, slightly worse than −1.9 in September, a new personal low and his weakest rating in the series so far.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) stayed narrowly in first place at 1.3, down from 1.4. Manuela Schwesig, the SPD premier of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, scored 1.1. Hendrik Wuest, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia from Merz's conservative CDU, scored 0.8.
If a general election were held this week, the poll projects the right-wing AfD at 28%, ahead of Merz's conservative CDU/CSU alliance at 21%.
The center-left SPD, Merz's coalition partner, would remain at 13%. Among the opposition parties, the environmentalist Greens would gain 1 point to reach 15%, the socialist Left Party would remain at 12%, and the liberal FDP would receive 3%.
The figures suggest that, if a snap election were held, Merz's CDU/CSU alliance and the center-left SPD would fall short of a parliamentary majority.
Some 68% of respondents said the AfD is a danger to democracy in Germany. But 29% disagreed. Disagreement was higher in the former eastern states, at 42%, than in the west, at 26%.
Germany's domestic intelligence agency classified the AfD in 2025 as a confirmed right-wing extremist endeavor, citing anti-democratic positions and ties to right-wing extremist groups. The party rejects that finding and is challenging it in court.
Asked about proposals to ban the AfD over its alleged anti-democratic goals, 43% favored outlawing the party and 51% opposed it. Opposition was higher among supporters of Merz's conservative CDU/CSU alliance, at 54%, and among supporters of the liberal FDP, at 55%.
On cooperation, 45% said other parties should refuse in principle to work with the AfD, including 70% of SPD supporters, 76% of Greens supporters and 79% of Left Party supporters. As many as 53% said parties should decide case by case, including 54% of CDU/CSU supporters, and 86% of FDP supporters.
