German intelligence BND accuses Russia of hiding true economic cost of war

Germany's ⁠intelligence service on Wednesday accused Moscow of hiding the true cost of the war in Ukraine, saying Russia's budget deficit in 2025 was more than 2.36 trillion roubles ($30.45 ⁠billion) higher than officially stated.

In a post on LinkedIn, the BND said Western sanctions were having a "clear effect" on the Russian economy, alongside significantly lower oil and gas revenues due to a sharp fall in global prices.

"Putin is sacrificing Russia's economic future for his imperial goals," the intelligence service said.

The Kremlin last week said falling revenues and a growing budget deficit were "routine difficulties" and fixable thanks to overall macroeconomic stability.

Russian revenues from sales ⁠of ⁠oil, its main export commodity, have fallen because Moscow has been forced to sell it at a greater discount on global markets due to Western sanctions and U.S. pressure on major buyers.

The BND put Russia's federal budget deficit at 8.01 trillion roubles compared to the official figure of 5.65 trillion that equates to 2.6% of GDP. It did not divulge ⁠detailed calculations on how it arrived at the precise figure, and did not immediately reply to a request for further comment.

Russia's consolidated budget deficit, which includes regional budgets, substantially deteriorated in 2025, reaching 8.3 trillion roubles or 3.9% of GDP, 2.6-fold more than in 2024 due to falling revenues and increased expenditure.

The Finance Ministry has ⁠not ‌commented on ‌BND's allegations.

A source close to the Russian ⁠government had told Reuters in February that ‌Russia's budget situation was sharply deteriorating.

Global oil prices have rallied in the wake of U.S. and Israeli ⁠strikes against Iran, but the rise still ⁠falls short of what is needed to balance the Russian budget, ⁠according to Reuters calculations.