NATO's support for Türkiye in the event of escalating regional tensions would not only back Ankara but also test the alliance's readiness, a security expert said Wednesday at a roundtable discussion in Paris on Türkiye-NATO relations.
Murat Aslan, a faculty member at Hasan Kalyoncu University and a senior researcher at the SETA think tank, warned that the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran could expand and potentially spread toward the Gulf region.
He said any escalation would inevitably affect the interests of both Türkiye and NATO.
Aslan also said modern conflicts increasingly involve confrontations between states and non-state actors, requiring what he described as a "hybrid response" combining military, political and security measures.
- 'RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER UNDER STRAIN'
Presidential Chief Adviser Cagri Erhan said the rules-based international order built around the United Nations system after World War II is facing growing pressure.
Speaking at the discussion, Erhan said global developments since the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed the world into a more uncertain period marked by rising security risks, fragile economic conditions and growing protectionism.
The meeting, hosted by the Turkish Embassy in Paris, brought together nearly 30 French and Turkish journalists to discuss Türkiye-NATO relations as well as developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.
"The rules-based international order is under attack from all sides," Erhan said.
"Right now, no one is talking about international law. Everything on the table is based solely on national interests. No one is talking about cooperation. We do not know what kind of new international order will emerge," he said.
Erhan also warned that the Russia-Ukraine war remains a major concern and that the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could escalate further.
He added that disruptions to global trade and supply chains are becoming an increasing risk.
Erhan noted that Türkiye will host an upcoming NATO summit in Ankara that will bring together leaders of NATO member states and other international partners.
"At the summit, we will discuss strengthening NATO's defense against emerging security and defense risks," he said.
- 'WHAT HAPPENS IN MIDDLE EAST DOES NOT STAY THERE'
Kilic Bugra Kanat, research director at SETA in Washington, said Türkiye has experience dealing with instability and civil wars along its borders but warned that the latest attacks in the Middle East could trigger wider regional instability.
He said defense spending among Middle Eastern countries is likely to rise even if the attacks stop.
"If the conflict continues and any kind of civil war emerges in Iran, the consequences would be significant," he said.
Kanat stressed the importance of preventing further escalation, noting that populations across the region are exhausted after years of conflict.
He added that the recent attacks have already begun to influence global energy prices and that their social, political and security effects may soon become more visible.
"What happens in the Middle East does not stay in the Middle East. We saw this in other conflicts in Syria and Iraq," he said.
