Iran war disruption expected to curb global fossil fuel emissions, scientists say

Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, partly due to disruptions to energy markets caused by the Iran conflict and the expansion of clean energy, according to the Global Carbon Project.

The group's annual report projects oil-related emissions to fall 1.9% this year, while natural gas emissions are expected to decrease 0.3% and coal emissions to rise 0.6%.

Fossil fuel emissions are also projected to decline in major economies, falling by 1.5% in the EU, 1.3% in the US and 0.9% in China.

India's emissions, however, are expected to increase by 4.4%.

The report says solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expected to meet around two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand.

Researchers cautioned that the projected decline in fossil fuel emissions does not signal a lasting reversal in their use.

"A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," said Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study.