The European Union could face a natural gas shortfall of up to 14 billion cubic meters this winter, equivalent to around 7% of the bloc's demand, amid depleted storage levels and disruptions to global energy supplies, according to energy reports.
A report by the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), shared with Politico on Friday, warned that the EU's gas reserves have fallen to just above 70%, their lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2011.
The potential deficit could affect energy supplies equivalent to the consumption of 10 million to 12 million European households, raising concerns over higher electricity bills and possible energy-saving measures.
High prices have encouraged traders to sell gas during the summer rather than replenish storage facilities ahead of winter, leaving the bloc with a reduced buffer against supply disruptions.
The findings are also reflected in the 2026-2027 winter supply outlook published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).
The report warned that storage levels could fall to as low as 11% under a cold-winter scenario if liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are limited or remain at optimal levels.
To restore reserves to 30% by the end of winter, the EU could face a situation in which gas consumption equivalent to 7% of demand would have to be curtailed or supplies withheld from consumers, according to ENTSOG.
The EU's planned ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG, due to take effect in January, is expected to reduce gas imports by a further 7 billion cubic meters, according to the IEEFA report.
Meanwhile, winter gas demand has risen over the past two years, while imports have remained largely flat, increasing the bloc's dependence on stored supplies.
The EU could turn to additional LNG imports, particularly from the US, to offset potential supply losses.
However, replacing the missing volumes at current prices would cost an additional €3 billion, representing a 12% increase compared with the cost of the same volumes last year, according to IEEFA.
