Icelanders have rejected reopening accession negotiations with the EU, voting to preserve a relationship that gives them extensive access to the bloc while keeping the country outside it.
In an Aug. 29 referendum, 52.8% voted against restarting the talks, while 47.2% supported the proposal.
Turnout reached 82.5%, the highest since 2009, with 118,040 voting "no" and 105,399 voting "yes."
The ballot was not a direct vote on EU membership. It asked whether negotiations suspended more than a decade ago should continue. Any resulting accession agreement would have required a second referendum.
"It is a blow to the EU," Marianne Riddervold, a research professor at the ARENA Centre for European Studies at the University of Oslo, told Anadolu.
"Enlarging to democratically stable and relatively wealthy countries would help balance Eastern enlargement. And the EU has a strong interest in developments in the Arctic," Riddervold said.
Referendum turned into membership debate
Riddervold said the "no" campaign succeeded in transforming a procedural vote on negotiations into a wider debate over membership.
"The no campaign made this into a discussion about membership more than whether or not to start negotiations," she said.
"The yes campaign wasn't really prepared for this, and the no campaign had more resources and support by the main newspaper, which is partly owned by strong fishing interests."
The final Gallup poll before the referendum showed 51.6% opposing renewed talks and 48.4% supporting them.
However, an earlier survey by Icelandic pollster Maskina had placed the "yes" side narrowly ahead at 51.3%, indicating a shift during the closing stages of the campaign.
Riddervold said the opposition was driven by both economic interests and identity-based concerns.
"The main arguments against were linked to national control over national resources, not least fisheries, and there was a strong ideational component to the opposition, linked to the idea of sovereignty and independence," she said.
Fisheries dominate campaign
The fishing industry accounts for about 8% of Iceland's gross domestic product and nearly 40% of exports. A pre-referendum Gallup survey found that 90% of companies connected to the sector opposed EU membership.
"The no campaign had more resources, and support by the main newspaper, which is partly owned by strong fishing interests," Riddervold said.
Membership would bring Iceland under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, although quotas, access and possible exemptions would have been negotiated. Icelanders decided there was no need to open the talks before arguing over how they might end.
The result also exposed an urban-rural divide. Reykjavik North backed negotiations by 57.5%, while Reykjavik South voted 54.5% in favor.
The "no" vote reached 62.9% in the Northwest, 61.2% in the Northeast and 60.5% in the South.
