Will Trump’s midterm defeat change his course on Iran?

US President Donald Trump's crushing midterm defeat has cast fresh uncertainty over his approach to Iran, with analysts questioning whether the political setback will push him toward diplomacy or renewed military escalation.

The Democratic victories in Tuesday's midterm elections dealt a major blow to Trump's Republican Party, with voters expressing dissatisfaction over the cost of living, inflation and the war with Iran.

Trump himself acknowledged Wednesday that the Iran war had contributed to the Republican losses. However, he continued defending his decision, telling the Wall Street Journal, "I would have done it again."

Jack Clayton, a US foreign policy analyst, had anticipated an electoral backlash over the war's economic consequences.

"We expect to see Trump politically punished in the midterm elections for a war that voters feel has further increased gas prices and the cost of living," he told Anadolu ahead of the vote.

- Diplomatic outreach

Clayton said Trump and Vice President JD Vance would prefer a diplomatic solution, pointing to Vance's recent letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Addressing Rezaei rather than Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was significant, he said, because Washington considers the security official more influential in Iranian decision-making, despite his reputation as a hardliner.

Rezaei acknowledged receiving the letter, saying Saturday that Washington's tone had changed. Araghchi described the outreach as constructive but ruled out an imminent meeting with US officials, according to Iranian media.

The letter reportedly sought to restart negotiations, including on Iran's nuclear program, as Washington considered further military action.

Clayton said Tehran remained deeply skeptical of US intentions, particularly after fighting resumed following the collapse of a 14-point memorandum of understanding, in which Vance had played a central role.

"This suggests that they are very concerned that the US will not remain committed to diplomacy," he said, referring to Tehran's reluctance to accept nuclear inspections under a new agreement.

He said Iran feared inspections similar to those under the 2015 nuclear deal could provide Washington with intelligence about its nuclear stockpile and its location.

By Tuesday, Rezaei said the US response to Tehran's demands remained unconvincing.

- Netanyahu's role and the risk of escalation

Clayton also identified Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has reportedly been pushing Trump to resume attacks on Iran, as a potential obstacle to diplomatic efforts.

He argued that renewed conflict could serve Netanyahu's domestic political interests by delaying or complicating a possible departure from office. With his bloc short of a parliamentary majority after last week's election, a wider war could give Netanyahu an opening to seek an emergency coalition and remain in power.

Nevertheless, Clayton considered another Israeli attack highly unlikely without US support.

He also questioned whether Trump would back Netanyahu again, given the political costs of the war and the prospect of further economic pressure on American households.

However, US forces carried out limited strikes Monday against Iranian forces using surface-to-air missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, officials told US news media. Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm and Hengam islands and near the mainland port of Bandar Abbas.

Clayton also identified Lebanon as a potential flashpoint.

He said Netanyahu could seek to undermine a possible US-Iran agreement by escalating attacks there, particularly because Iran has made an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon a condition for diplomatic progress.

As Americans voted Tuesday, Trump said he had reached a deal with Netanyahu to end roughly $4 billion in annual US military aid to Israel by year's end. He provided no details on how the cutoff would be implemented.

A 10-year memorandum signed in 2016 pledges $3.8 billion in annual US military assistance to Israel through September 2028, raising questions about how Trump's announcement would be implemented. Trump said weapons sales and other assistance could continue.

- Could the election setback push Trump toward diplomacy or further strikes?

Clayton outlined two possible responses to the Republican defeat in the midterms. Trump could become more cautious about military action to avoid further political damage or focus more heavily on foreign policy as congressional opposition constrains his domestic agenda.

He doubted that another sustained military campaign on the scale seen at the start of the war was feasible but said further strikes could serve as "coercive diplomacy" aimed at extracting more favorable terms from Iran.

"I remain skeptical that there will be a full blown resumption of war as we saw earlier in the year, due to being unable to do so," he said.

John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, similarly cautioned against assuming that the election outcome would determine Trump's next move.

"The mixed signals from the White House, coupled with uncertainty over the extent of diplomatic progress, make it difficult to predict what comes next," he said.

He said Washington and Tehran remained far apart on a potential agreement, with both sides appearing to view compromise as capitulation.

Calabrese described diplomacy and military pressure as proceeding simultaneously, with messages exchanged through Qatar even as tensions continued around the Strait of Hormuz.

He warned that reports of expanded US and Israeli target lists, including energy infrastructure and other economically important sites, suggested a wider military campaign could be more destructive than earlier fighting.

"My sense is that Trump is keeping both options open: pursuing a deal while retaining the military option," he said.

- More congressional scrutiny, no automatic restraint

Democrats' victories will give them greater scope to investigate the administration and challenge its spending priorities when the new congressional terms begin in January.

With control of both chambers, Democrats will be able to hold hearings, demand information from administration officials and challenge funding decisions, potentially increasing the political costs of a prolonged conflict.

However, their victories will not automatically halt military operations or resolve the longstanding struggle between Congress and the presidency over war powers.

The election results also reflect the domestic economic consequences of the confrontation, particularly rising energy prices and wider cost-of-living pressures facing American households.

US media reported that dissatisfaction with high costs and the Iran war contributed to Republican losses, with Democrats making significant gains in traditionally Republican areas.

Calabrese said the midterms could influence Trump's calculations, but the outcome of the crisis would ultimately depend on whether Washington and Tehran could agree on the terms of a settlement.

"The Iranian and American positions on a potential deal to avert another crisis remain far apart," he said. "Unless those differences can be bridged in the coming days, I fear a resumption of hostilities may become unavoidable."