Analysis finds coffee-producing countries becoming too hot for bean cultivation

In Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, more than 4 million households rely on the crop as their main source of income, and it generates nearly one-third of the country's export revenue, but its future is becoming increasingly uncertain as temperatures rise.

"Coffee farmers in Ethiopia are already seeing the impact of extreme heat,'' said Dejene Dadi, general manager of the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union.

Research shows that coffee-growing countries are becoming too hot for cultivation as the climate crisis intensifies. The five leading producers, which supply about 75% of the world's coffee, record an average of 57 additional days of damaging heat each year, according to Climate Central.

Coffee is grown within the so-called "bean belt" between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn and requires stable temperatures and rainfall. The prized Arabica variety struggles when temperatures exceed 30C (86F).

About 2 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide each day, but the industry is facing mounting pressure. The World Bank said prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee nearly doubled between 2023 and 2025, reaching a record high in February 2025.

Among major producers, El Salvador records 99 additional days of coffee-damaging heat annually, while Brazil sees 70 and Ethiopia registers 34, the analysis found.

"Ethiopian arabica is particularly sensitive to direct sunlight," Dadi said. "Without sufficient shade, coffee trees produce fewer beans and become more vulnerable to disease."

Campaigners say climate finance for adaptation remains insufficient, noting that smallholder farmers produce up to 80% of the world's coffee but receive just 0.36% of the funding required for adaptation. "To safeguard coffee supplies, governments need to act on climate change," Dadi said.