World still headed for 2.5C of warming despite new climate pledges, UN agency warns

Despite new climate pledges, the world remains on track for dangerous levels of global warming this century, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned Tuesday.

In its 16th Emissions Gap Report, UNEP said that if all current national climate plans are fully implemented, global temperatures are projected to rise between 2.3C (4.14F) and 2.5C (4.5F) by the end of the century. Based on existing policies, the increase is estimated at around 2.8C (5.04F).

That represents only a slight improvement from last year's projection of a rise between 2.6C (4.7F) and 2.8C (5F), the report noted, adding that new nationally determined contributions "have barely moved the needle."

Countries remain "far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well below 2C (3.6F), while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5C (2.7F)," the report said.

To meet those targets, global emissions would need to fall by 35% and 55% compared with 2019 levels by 2035.

Given the scale of the required cuts and "a challenging political climate," the report said that exceeding 1.5C (2.7F) is "very likely within the next decade."

"This overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions" to reduce risks and damages, it said.

"Every fraction of a degree avoided means lower losses for people and ecosystems, lower costs and less reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal techniques," it added.

On a positive note, global temperature projections have fallen from 3C-3.5C (5.4F-6.3F) since the Paris Agreement's adoption a decade ago, according to UNEP.

"The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs," it said.

UNEP said the world can still "accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so."

But achieving faster cuts "would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, delivering a massive increase in support to developing countries and redesigning the international financial architecture," it added.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the report "clear" and "uncompromising" in a post on the US social media company X.

"The upcoming COP30 Climate Conference must be the turning point where the world delivers a bold and credible response plan," he added.
The UN Climate Change Conference COP30 will begin next Monday in Brazil.