Mexico and US profit from new FIFA rules, Haiti and Türkiye don't

FIFA has dropped goal difference in favour of the head to head result as the first tie-breaker if teams are tied on points in World Cup groups. The results of the change can already be felt - at both ends of groups.

Co-hosts Mexico and United States were the first teams to profit from new regulations to determine placings in World Cup groups while Haiti and Türkiye are the first victims of them.

The Mexican and US teams are confirmed as group winners and Haiti and Türkiye as eliminated bottom ranked teams because FIFA is using the head to head result as a first tie-breaker when teams are tied on points and no longer goal difference.

In short, teams will now top a group after two matchdays if they win both games and are three points clear of the next best team instead of four in the past, as long as they have beaten the next best side.

This means that Mexico can not be dethroned atop Group A even if they lose their final game against the Czech Republic and South Korea beat South Africa. In this scenario Mexico and South Korea would have six points each but Mexico won the match between the two 1-0.

The same applies in Group D where the US on six can not be toppled by the winner of Australia v Paraguay on three each because they beat both of them.

In the same way Türkiye are eliminated in that group because they lost against Australia and Paraguay, who are three points ahead of them. The same applies to Haiti in Group C because they lost against Scotland.

FIFA's new rule is the same one UEFA has been using in European events.

It may mean that for instance Germany's big 7-1 win over Curacao or Sweden's 5-1 against Tunisia could be worth less than in the past as goal difference only comes into effect if the teams tied on points have played to a draw.

At the same time it appears to increase the likelihood of somewhat devaluing the final round of matches.

The group D match between the US and Türkiye is a dead rubber now and perhaps less attractive for fans, that even more as US coach Mauricio Pochettino may be tempted to rest some key players for the knock-out rounds.

If Mexico decide something similar that may meanwhile help the Czechs avoid a defeat and advance as well while South Korea would not have a similar luxury against South Africa who are not out yet. This even more because third-placed teams can advance as well.

Goal difference could however decide the top of Group C where Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in their meeting and have four points each heading into final games against Scotland and Haiti, respectively.

Similar scenarios in either direction could follow in other groups during matchday two which runs until Tuesday, with for instance the winner of Germany v Ivory Coast guaranteed first place if the other game between Ecuador and Curacao goes the winner's way.

On the other hand there are several groups where at least first place can not be decided after matchday two.

This includes Group B, where the third hosts Canada face Switzerland in a direct showdown for the top spot, with both teams tied on four points. Canada are however ahead on goal difference and thus will finish top with a draw.