Five Questions about Post-Raisi Iran

The helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi crashed in a mountainous area on May 19th, 2024. The crash resulted in the death of President Raisi. Alongside Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati, and Tabriz Friday Imam Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem also perished. Upon Tehran's request, Türkiye deployed the AKINCI unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for search and rescue operations. The coordinates of the helicopter wreckage identified by AKINCI were shared with Iranian authorities. Iranian teams found no survivors at the crash site. Raisi's death has initiated many discussions about its impact on Iran's domestic politics and regional dynamics. We explore the crash and its repercussions in five questions. - Was it an accident or an assassination? - What procedure will follow? Raisi was elected president in 2021, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2025 under normal circumstances. - What is the difference between the Supreme Leader and the President? - Where did Raisi stand in the succession debate for the Supreme Leader? Hakkı Uygur agrees, stating: 'With Ebrahim Raisi completely out of the picture, Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of succeeding his father have significantly increased. Consequently, his key ally, current Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has a better chance of becoming president in the election to be held in 50 days. This unification of leadership could facilitate a smoother transition post-Khamenei.' - Will Raisi's death impact Iran's regional policies? Hakkı Uygur evaluates the situation in two ways. If the incident was an accident, Iran's known domestic and foreign policies will continue, as fundamental policies are determined by the Supreme Leader, not the president, according to the constitution. Uygur's second assessment considers the possibility of sabotage. He explains: 'Even if there was sabotage, it is unlikely to be publicly acknowledged, so regional developments may not be greatly affected. However, given the extremely tense and fragile regional balance since October 7, Iran might respond strongly to Israel if it attempts a major retaliation, potentially targeting Israeli interests within Iran or in a third country. The crucial point is that such actions must also be deniable. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that there are currently no signs or indications of sabotage.'

Five Questions about Post-Raisi Iran

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sparked numerous debates both within Iran and regionally. What can be expected in the aftermath of Raisi's death? Details are in our report.