- Where did Raisi stand in the succession debate for the Supreme Leader?
One of the significant questions raised by Raisi's death is how his absence will affect the power struggle to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
As Khamenei ages, the question of his successor has occupied academics, officials, and analysts. Due to Iran's political structure, open discussions about who will succeed Khamenei are not possible. However, analysts, officials, and academics close to the political establishment had seen both Raisi and Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as top contenders.
Analysts believe Raisi's death clears the path for Mojtaba Khamenei to become the next Supreme Leader.
Hakkı Uygur agrees, stating: "With Ebrahim Raisi completely out of the picture, Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of succeeding his father have significantly increased. Consequently, his key ally, current Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has a better chance of becoming president in the election to be held in 50 days. This unification of leadership could facilitate a smoother transition post-Khamenei."
However, experts agree that Mojtaba Khamenei's path is not without obstacles. The legacy of hereditary rule from the Shah's era remains a major concern, as the leaders of the 1979 Islamic Revolution strongly opposed any system resembling the monarchy they overthrew.
- Will Raisi's death impact Iran's regional policies?
In Iran, the Supreme Leader is the final authority on all state matters, including foreign policy and the nuclear program, not the president. Therefore, no major changes in the Islamic Republic of Iran's general policies are expected following Raisi's death.
Hakkı Uygur evaluates the situation in two ways. If the incident was an accident, Iran's known domestic and foreign policies will continue, as fundamental policies are determined by the Supreme Leader, not the president, according to the constitution.
Uygur's second assessment considers the possibility of sabotage. He explains: "Even if there was sabotage, it is unlikely to be publicly acknowledged, so regional developments may not be greatly affected. However, given the extremely tense and fragile regional balance since October 7, Iran might respond strongly to Israel if it attempts a major retaliation, potentially targeting Israeli interests within Iran or in a third country. The crucial point is that such actions must also be deniable. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that there are currently no signs or indications of sabotage."
