'Supersized' El Niño to bring extreme weather, UN experts warn

The world should brace for extreme heat, droughts and flooding in some regions in the coming months as an exceptionally strong El Niño develops, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday.

Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific regions, which have a major influence on weather patterns around the world, are already exceptionally high, the Geneva-based UN agency said.

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary General António Guterres said in a statement. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."

The WMO itself does not use the term "Super El Niño," which has been adopted some climate experts.

The agency bases its El Niño forecasts on calculations from several weather services around the world. The phenomenon occurs naturally every two to seven years and is not caused by climate change, although climate change can intensify its effects.

"The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race," Guterres said.

El Niño begins with a warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. According to the WMO, temperatures there are already between 2.2 degrees and 2.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

Below the surface, water temperatures in July and early August were in some places more than 8 degrees above average.

Warm, moist air then rises in the region, altering global wind and atmospheric circulation patterns. This often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, while the west coast of South America, East Africa and the southern United States frequently experience heavy rainfall. Europe tends to be less affected.

Global average temperatures are often particularly high in the year following an El Niño. The year 2024, the hottest on record at around 1.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, followed an El Niño.

Most months of 2026 so far have already been warmer than average. July was the second-warmest on record in Western Europe after 2006, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The region recorded an average temperature of 22.48 degrees Celsius, around 2.5 degrees above the 1991-2020 average.

The WMO expects above-average temperatures across virtually all of the world's land areas from September to November.