Finland’s Stubb says Russia unlikely to risk attack on NATO

Finland's President Alexander Stubb stated that he does not believe Russia would risk attacking a NATO country, dismissing warnings that Moscow could be ready to strike NATO territory by 2029.

Speaking to Germany's Bild newspaper on Saturday, Stubb said such forecasts were speculative and lacked supporting evidence.

"If someone had such a crystal ball — wonderful. But I simply see neither evidence nor facts for that," he said. "I do not believe that Russia would ever want to attack the most powerful military alliance in the world, NATO."

He cautioned, however, that he was not advising allies to lower their guard. "I'm not saying 'relax.' One should always prepare for the worst in order to prevent it."

Stubb said his assessment rested on two pillars. "First, I have intelligence insights. And second, we have deterrence — and this deterrence is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world." That deterrence, he said, is based "on conventional forces, on missiles and on nuclear weapons. It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance."

He also expressed skepticism about the prospect of a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine. "This summer the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I raised the topic. And he said: 'We will never allow that to happen.' And I believe that is a rather effective deterrence."

Stubb argued that Russia's information warfare aims to sow fear across Europe by forcing debate over whether Moscow might escalate, use nuclear weapons or attack NATO. In reality, he said, Russia's options remain limited. The only major escalation still available is a new mobilization, a step that could carry domestic political costs inside Russia.

Stubb underlined the importance of diplomatic efforts to end the war. He welcomed CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow last week, saying, "I think that's good. Really. I believe there must be dialogue." Americans and Russians should remain in contact, he said.

Despite Russia's hybrid attacks, Europe should also seek direct contact with the Kremlin, Stubb argued. "I believe someone in Europe needs to resume dialogue with Russia to understand what is going on there. We need to talk to one another at a political level." His main concern, he said, is that "illusions might arise" in Moscow about developments in Europe, leading the Kremlin to assume the emergence of new threats that do not exist in reality.