Ukraine's 2023 grain crop may reach 50 million to 55 million metric tons compared to 53 million tons in 2022, a senior Ukrainian agriculture official said on Tuesday.
A higher than expected grain yield was the main reason for the new outlook, first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy said.
"Farmers are harvesting more wheat than expected, so there will be a certain revision (of crop forecast) in a positive direction and now such a moderate forecast says that grain may be harvested more than 50, even up to 55 million tons," Vysotskiy told national television.
"At the same time, domestic consumption is about 18 million tons, so production will be three times higher than domestic consumption."
He gave no more details. The ministry previously saw the 2023 grain crop at around 46 million tons, while state weather forecasters expected the crop at 49 million.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA this month increased its 2023 combined grain and oilseed crop forecast for Ukraine by almost eight million tons to 76.8 million tons.
UGA said the harvest could include 26.9 million tons of corn, 20.2 million tons of wheat, 5.2 million tons of barley, 13.9 million tons of sunflower seeds, 3.9 million tons of rapeseed and 4.8 million tons of soybeans.
Vysotskiy said farmers had no difficulties with grain storages but grain should be exported despite limited export capacities.
In the 2022/23 season, most of the volume was exported via deep Black Sea ports under the deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July to tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and blockade of Ukrainian ports.
Russia left the deal on July 17 after saying its demands to ease sanctions on its own grain and fertilizer exports had not been met.
Currently, Ukraine can export limited volumes through small river ports on the Danube River and via its western land border with the European Union.
"It is impossible to transport the entire volume by river or rail. Alternatively, 3 (million) to 4 million tons can be exported, but in order to export all the grain, the Black Sea ports need to be reopened," Vysotskiy said.
He also said that export difficulties had forced producers to adjust their sowing plans and switch from grain crops to oilseeds.
The ministry said it had asked farmers to report their sowing plans for 2024 to form preliminary estimates for the 2024/25 season.
"By August 15 we will understand farmers' final sentiment on wheat, barley and rape seed sowings," he noted.
