Turkey's industrial output up in November

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Beating market expectations with 11% year-on-year rise, figure indicates strong 3rd quarter growth

Turkey's calendar-adjusted industrial production surged 11% year-on-year last November, the country's statistical authority said on Wednesday.

The figure, which beat market expectations, indicates strong growth for the third quarter of 2020.

In a survey by Anadolu Agency on Friday, a group of economists projected the calendar-adjusted industrial production index would rise 8.3% year-on-year.

The manufacturing index posted the best performance among industrial sub-sectors in November 2020, shooting up 11.6% from the same month in the previous year, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said in a statement.

The electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply index rose 7.5%, while the mining and quarrying index went up slightly, 4.6%, during the same period.

The term "calendar-adjusted" is used to refer to data without calendar and holiday-originating effects.

Turkey's industrial output is deemed a vital indicator for the economy as it is seen as a preliminary gauge for gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Loose credit, good production fuel growth

On a monthly basis, the seasonal and calendar-adjusted industrial output climbed 1.3% in November, TurkStat said.

The manufacturing index posted the largest rise with 1.5%, followed by the mining and quarrying as well as electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply indices, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

Enver Erkan, an economist at Istanbul-based private investment firm Tera Yatirim, said the rapid recovery that started in the third quarter following a lockdown period was reflected in the October and November figures.

"Keeping production channels open will make the [manufacturing] sector appear more positive at a time when the effects of virus-related restrictions are seen," he added.

Government steps such as keeping credit channels loose along with the sound industrial production figures will help the country see a positive growth rate for 2020, he stressed.

"The slowdown in global economies due to the quarantine measures, monetary tightening, and the rise in interest rates may cause a stagnation effect as of the first quarter of 2021," he also cautioned.

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