Poor rainy seasons deepen drought risks across Horn of Africa: UN

The October-December 2025 rainy season has "essentially failed" across the eastern Horn of Africa, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday, raising concerns of a sharp deterioration in food security during the first half of 2026.

Cyril Ferrand, resilience team leader for Eastern Africa at FAO, told reporters in Geneva that many areas of Somalia, eastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia received less than 60% of average rainfall, with the worst-affected locations recording under 30% and some seeing almost no effective rain.

"Some areas are heading toward their driest season on record since 1981," Ferrand said, adding that in many places this marks the second or third consecutive poor rainy season, while communities are still recovering from the 2020-2023 drought.

The rainfall failure has already triggered widespread crop losses in Somalia, while crop failures or very low yields are expected in eastern and central Kenya, the agency said.

Livestock conditions are also deteriorating, with reduced milk production and livestock deaths anticipated.

More than 185,000 people have been displaced by drought in Somalia, including at least 55,800 who crossed into Ethiopia, Ferrand said, noting that Mogadishu declared a drought emergency on Nov. 10.

Food insecurity, already severe across the region, is expected to worsen as lean seasons peak in 2026, with pastoral areas most affected from February to March and agropastoral zones from April to June, according to the FAO.

Current estimates "put 2.1 million people at high levels of food insecurity in Kenya and 4.4 million in Somalia," but Ferrand said these figures are likely to rise as the full impact of the failed rains becomes clear.

He stressed that drought does not have to turn into a large humanitarian crisis if early action is taken.

FAO has already released $4 million from its Special Fund for Emergencies and Resilience Activities for anticipatory action in the region, but warned that Somalia's 2025 humanitarian plan remains only 24% funded.