46 days before Israel election, neither bloc assured of forming government

With 46 days to go before Israel's general election, the country faces a political deadlock as opinion polls show neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition securing enough seats to form the next government.

Polls show the opposition Yashar party, led by former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud.

Eisenkot also leads Netanyahu in polls asking who is better suited to serve as prime minister, but that does not guarantee that he could form a government.

Israel's prime minister is not directly elected. Instead, the task of forming a government is entrusted to the politician who can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset.

Israel's general election is scheduled for Oct. 27, with Netanyahu's bloc competing against the opposition parties.

- Blocs tied

A poll published by Israel's public broadcaster KAN on Wednesday evening showed Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition each winning 52 seats if elections were held that day, while Arab lawmakers would take 12 seats and an alliance led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha would win four.

Hendel, who is identified with the political right, has not said which bloc he would support in forming a government.

The four seats projected for his alliance would also be insufficient on their own to give either camp the 61-seats needed to form a government.

A similar picture emerged from a poll published by Israel's Channel 13 on Wednesday evening.

According to the results, Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition would each win 53 seats, while Arab lawmakers would secure 14.

- Arab lawmakers

Based on these figures, the Jewish opposition could theoretically reach an understanding with Arab lawmakers that would allow it to form an alternative government, but significant political obstacles remain.

Most leaders of Jewish opposition parties reject the idea of relying on Arab lawmakers to form a government, while Netanyahu and his allies have focused their campaign on warning against a government that depends on their support.

Any agreement by Arab lawmakers to support the opposition would also come with demands, particularly regarding the needs of Arab citizens in Israel and Palestinian rights in the occupied territories.

Netanyahu has focused heavily in his election rhetoric on the possibility that the opposition could rely on Arab lawmakers, particularly the United Arab List headed by Mansour Abbas, which helped establish the so-called change government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021.

That marked the first time an Israeli government was formed with the support of an Arab party, and Netanyahu is seeking to prevent a repeat of that scenario in the upcoming election.

- Possibility of another election

If the political map remains unchanged, Israel could once again face multiple elections until one of the blocs manages to secure enough support to form a government.

Israel previously held three successive elections in April 2019, September 2019 and March 2020 before a government was eventually formed in 2021.

Israeli observers do not rule out a similar scenario if the Oct. 27 vote fails to produce a clear majority.

Such a possibility would be significant for Netanyahu because, in the event of another election, he would remain prime minister of a caretaker government until an alternative government could be formed.

Observers say Netanyahu would prefer either to form the next government himself, even as part of a national unity government, or at least to prevent the opposition from establishing an alternative coalition.

- Concerns over accepting results

Alongside concerns over a potential inability to form a government, there are also fears in Israel that some groups could refuse to accept the election results if their side is defeated.

The Israel Democracy Institute said in a poll published Wednesday that 56% of Israelis believe there is a high likelihood that some elements on the "losing side" would refuse to accept the declared results and resort to force in an attempt to alter them.

According to the institute, the proportion holding this view was similar among Jewish and Arab respondents.

An analysis of Jewish respondents by political affiliation found that a clear majority of centrists, and an even larger majority of those on the left, viewed such a scenario as possible.

The figure was lower among right-wing respondents but still slightly more than half.

The upcoming election is widely seen as critical to the political future of Netanyahu and the far-right parties participating in his government.

Netanyahu has led the current government since late December 2022, which is widely described as the most right-wing government in Israel's history.

He has also been the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court since 2024 over war crimes against Palestinians in Gaza.

Netanyahu has refused to accept responsibility for the failures preceding the Oct. 7 events, instead placing responsibility on the military and security agencies, while his opponents have demanded that he accept political responsibility.