1 in 4 jobs globally threatened by generative artificial intelligence

A report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland's National Research Institute (NASK) revealed Tuesday that 25% of jobs worldwide are potentially exposed to generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), with clerical and highly digital occupations facing the highest vulnerability.

The report, "Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure," presented what researchers describe as the most detailed global assessment to date on how GenAI may reshape labor markets.

But the study underscores that job transformation, not mass displacement, is the more likely outcome of AI's workplace integration.

"We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs," said Pawel Gmyrek, ILO senior researcher and lead author. "By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we've created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision."

- Greater exposure in advanced economies

The study said the global exposure rate to GenAI stands at 25%, but the figure climbs to 34% in high-income countries due to greater digital integration.

Clerical jobs face the highest exposure, as GenAI can theoretically automate a wide range of administrative and data-entry tasks. Other highly exposed roles include cognitive jobs in media, software development, and finance.

The report introduces an "occupational exposure index" based on nearly 30,000 job tasks, cross-checked with AI scoring, expert validation and ILO employment data, allowing a more refined analysis of the technology's potential effect across countries and sectors.

- Gender disparity in AI exposure

The findings also highlight a significant gender disparity. In high-income countries, 9.6% of women are employed in jobs at high risk of automation, compared to only 3.5% of men.

"This index helps identify where GenAI is likely to have the biggest impact, so countries can better prepare and protect workers," said Marek Troszynski, senior expert at NASK and co-author of the report. "Our next step is to apply this new index to detailed labour force data from Poland."

- Call for inclusive policy action

While acknowledging that GenAI can boost productivity, the report cautions that its effects will depend on the pace of adoption, national infrastructure and workers' digital skills.

"Technological constraints, infrastructure gaps, and skills shortages mean that implementation will differ widely," said ILO senior economist Janine Berg. "This tool helps countries assess potential exposure and prepare their labour markets for a fairer digital future."

The report urges governments, employers and trade unions to engage in social dialogue and design policies that protect workers, promote upskilling and ensure just transitions in sectors exposed to GenAI.

The study aligns with the International Monetary Fund's 2024 assessment that AI could influence up to 40% of jobs globally, with advanced economies bearing the brunt of the shift.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva previously warned that AI risks deepening inequality if left unchecked.

"In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address," she said.