The Israeli attacks on Gaza, initially considered a regional crisis, have evolved into a global event with the onset of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Discussions have arisen regarding whether China is the biggest winner in the United States' intervention in Yemen.
One of the most significant humanitarian tragedies in recent times is unfolding in Gaza. The attacks launched by Israel since October 7 have led to the death of over 24,000 people, the majority of whom are women and children.
The city, which has been living under the Israeli blockade for years, was once referred to as the "world's largest open-air prison." Now, even its streets have turned into graveyards.
The United Nations (UN) has been unable to reach a ceasefire decision for Gaza, where more than two million people have been forcibly displaced from their homes, struggling with hunger and thirst. This is because the United States has consistently opposed any resolution against Israel.
In response to Israel's ongoing attacks on Gaza since October 7, Houthi forces in Yemen began to intervene in ships either belonging to or heading to Israel in the Red Sea.
Following numerous shipping companies' decisions to suspend their voyages in the Red Sea, a coalition led by the United States and the United Kingdom was formed.
The U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) announced on December 6, 2023, that they were in talks to establish an international "Sea Task Force" to counter Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. On December 18, they announced the formation of a multinational mission named "Guardians of Welfare Operation."
While Houthi attacks jeopardize the passage of commercial ships through the Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and serves as the shortest route between Europe and Asia, attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and the consecutive decisions by companies have raised concerns about a new "supply chain crisis" in the global economy.
According to the American shipping company Flexport, global container companies, which usually pass through the Suez Canal and make up an estimated 95% of capacity, have suspended their passages from the Red Sea in recent weeks.
While the U.S. and the UK conducted their first attacks against the Houthis in early January, yesterday, several locations, including the capital Sanaa, were targeted by the coalition.
Additionally, destroyers stationed in the Red Sea are actively using air defense missiles to prevent Houthi attacks.
Houthis primarily target Israel or Israeli ships with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and cruise missiles, mostly supplied by Iran or produced with Iranian assistance. According to experts, the cost of the equipment used by the Houthis is much lower than the ammunition used by the U.S. and its allies to counter the attacks.
A former official from the U.S. Department of Defense describes this situation as a "problem."
"It's becoming a problem rapidly because even if we shoot down incoming missiles and drones, the biggest benefit goes in their favor. As the U.S., we need to start looking for systems that can defeat them more cost-effectively in line with the cost they spend to attack us."
So, what ammunition does the U.S. use to prevent Houthi attacks? The Pentagon refrains from making an official statement on this matter, but the ammunition indicated by former officials and experts is the SM-2.
The cost of the SM-2 air defense missile is stated to be $2.1 million.
Experts note that the cost of the missiles and UAVs used by the Houthis is significantly lower.
While the U.S. missile shield in the Red Sea and the attacks it conducted in Yemen continue, the escalating military tension has brought about a new debate. The impact of Houthi attacks and some cargo companies changing routes on world trade has been widely discussed.
However, academician and author Minxin Pei brought up a new and important issue: China.
Why is China, the geopolitical rival of the U.S., not present in the Red Sea? Why is Beijing silent about Houthi attacks when it relies heavily on the Red Sea for commercial passage? Is Washington, aiming to stop Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, actually assisting its biggest geopolitical rival, China?
Now, let's take a closer look at the views of the author who claims, "China benefits the most from preventing the Houthis."
According to Pei, it is natural for the U.S. to ensure global navigation security through the Red Sea and keep waterways open for this mission.
However, as Pei emphasizes in his article, if American and British forces can suppress Houthi attacks, especially since 60% of China's exports pass through the Red Sea, China will be the country that benefits the most.
The author also points out that despite having a workforce that has been combating piracy in the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean, not too far from the Red Sea, China has not sent a single warship to the region.
According to the author, this situation is not evidence of Uncle Sam's "stupidity" but rather an example of the unequal nature of competition between the U.S. and China, characterized by two different factors. Firstly, the U.S. has reasons, especially in terms of military capabilities and technology, to be powerful, and forming alliances significantly distinguishes it from China.
According to the article, being the only superpower in the world, the U.S. carries the largest security burden, and meeting the requirements of this responsibility requires allocating enormous resources.
In contrast, China is a regional superpower with regional security concerns at its core. While the U.S. deploys about 170,000 soldiers and approximately 750 military bases in at least 80 countries worldwide, China has had a military base in Djibouti since 2017 to support operations against piracy in the Gulf of Aden.
Regarding the second factor that differentiates the nature of competition between the two countries, according to Pei, it clearly serves China's interests.
Pei points out that America's commitments to global security require it to shift its attention and resources continuously toward crises occurring far from China.
After the attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen, especially in response to Israeli attacks on Gaza, many shipping companies decided to suspend their voyages in the Red Sea.
According to MarineTraffic data, the number of container ships passing through the Red Sea in December 2023 decreased by 25% compared to the number of ships in December 2022.
During this period, there was no significant change in the number of ro-ro ships passing through the Red Sea, while the number of liquid natural gas, LPG, dry, and wet cargo ships did not show significant changes.
Following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Danish shipping company Maersk, the world's largest container company Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), German transportation company Hapag-Lloyd, French shipping company CMA CGM, and British energy company BP decided to suspend their operations in the region.
After these decisions by the companies, the daily ship traffic in the Red Sea decreased by 20% in the second half of December 2023 compared to the first half of the month. A rapid decline in ship traffic in the Red Sea was observed as of December 16, 2023.
The number of ships traveling in the Red Sea on December 1 was 646, and this number increased to 681 by December 16. The total daily ship count in the Red Sea dropped to 521 by December 31.
According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, another UK-based maritime data provider, ship traffic slowed by 20% in the Red Sea throughout the month, with a sharp decline in the December 25-31 week.
Following the redirection of container ships' transits in the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope, there was a 27% increase in ship transits from the Cape of Good Hope in the week of December 25-31 compared to the previous week.
As a result of the increasing Houthi attacks in the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the rising tension in the region, what economic losses can be expected? What security risks in the world's busiest strait lead to economic losses?
To understand this situation, we have a very valuable example in front of us.
In March 2021, the grounding of the 400-meter-long and 59-meter-wide giant ship "Ever Given" in the Suez Canal and the disruption of dual-directional navigation traffic in the canal for 6 days caused great concerns.
The canal's closure for a week resulted in approximately $10 billion in daily losses in global trade.
The daily loss for the Suez Canal Authority first reached $14 million and later increased to $28 million. The loss in a week amounted to approximately $200 million.
This situation led to a doubling of transportation, insurance, production costs, and fuel prices, causing global commodity prices to rise.
