Türkiye is experiencing one of its hottest summers in recent years, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in many places. Alongside concerns about how August will unfold, there is growing worry about whether autumn will bring enough rainfall, as dam water levels continue to drop.
This summer has been unusually hot across the country, with temperatures significantly above the long-term average, making the season unusually oppressive. The highest recorded temperature was 50.5 degrees Celsius on July 25 in Silopi, Şırnak. Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir also saw temperatures surpass 40 degrees. The absence of expected rainfall has increased drought risks, and many dams across Türkiye are sounding alarms due to critically low water levels.
What weather can be expected in the coming weeks and autumn? We spoke with Dr. Okan Bozyurt, a climate scientist and geography faculty member at Afyon Kocatepe University, for insights.
Dr. Bozyurt offers some hopeful news, stating that he does not expect temperatures in early August to remain above seasonal norms. He forecasts occasional convective rains in inner regions such as Inner Aegean, Lakes Region, Central Anatolia, parts of the Black Sea's interior, and northeastern Eastern Anatolia. Northern Marmara is also expected to see rainfall. While August temperatures will still be above average, extreme highs like those in July (40-45 degrees in the shade) are unlikely.
As summer ends, attention turns to autumn. Dr. Bozyurt's climate models suggest a promising September:
"We are seeing a slight shift toward La Niña and a neutral phase in the South Pacific Oscillation, which typically brings wetter autumns to Türkiye. Therefore, I expect rainfall in September to be at or above seasonal averages."
He predicts particularly active rains in northern regions including Marmara, the Black Sea, northern Central Anatolia, Inner Aegean, and northern Eastern Anatolia.
For October, the outlook changes: Dr. Bozyurt expects temperatures to remain above normal but anticipates dry conditions. He adds that after mid-November, colder and wetter weather is likely. He also notes that long-term forecasts become less reliable the further out they project.
The extreme heat and lack of rain have caused dam levels to drop critically. Whether upcoming rains can offset this is uncertain. Dr. Bozyurt explains:
"We are experiencing one of the hottest summers ever, pushing evaporation rates to their maximum. Warmer air holds more moisture, increasing 'absolute humidity.' The key factor is cooling in the upper atmosphere, which could trigger rainfall. Currently, dams are at alarm levels. While temperatures and evaporation will rise again after August rains, if September rainfall meets expectations, it could provide much-needed relief to dams."
Concerns about increasing sudden weather extremes persist. Dr. Bozyurt warns these may occur again this year:
"With very high temperatures, especially over seas, evaporation is extremely intense. When the upper atmosphere suddenly cools and mixes with moisture, strong storms can form, including 'supercell' hailstorms and severe thunderstorms with lightning and heavy downpours."
