European children born in 2025 could face almost twice as much extreme fire weather during their lifetimes as those born in 1950, according to a new study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters on Monday.
Researchers found that, under current climate policies, a child born in Europe in 2025 could experience three more years of extreme fire-conducive weather than someone born 75 years earlier.
The increase is expected to be greatest in the Mediterranean, where children born in 2025 could face five additional years of extreme fire weather compared with people born during the post-war baby boom.
The study examined 21 climate scenarios, ranging from 1.5°C to 3.5°C (2.7°F to 6.3°F) of global warming by the end of the century. It defined extreme fire weather as days with conditions more severe than the worst 5% recorded during the 1985-2014 reference period.
Under current policies, which are projected to result in about 2.6°C (4.7°F) of warming, children born today are expected to experience 84% more exposure to extreme fire weather than those born in 1950.
The researchers estimated that 86% of this rise would be caused by climate change, with the remaining 14% linked to increased life expectancy.
Hot, dry, and windy conditions allow fires to spread rapidly and burn more intensely. The study notes these conditions have been exacerbated by more than a century of fossil fuel pollution, during which Europe has warmed at roughly twice the global average rate.
If global warming were limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F), children born in 2025 would experience 1.3 fewer years of extreme fire weather over their lifetimes compared with the current-policy scenario.
These findings come as Europe faces increasingly severe wildfire conditions, particularly across the Mediterranean region.
