Germany’s crime rate rise not linked to migration: ifo Institute

Migration has not contributed to rising crime rates in Germany's immigration areas, according to an analysis released Tuesday by the ifo Institute, which examined district-level police crime statistics from 2018 to 2023.

"We find no correlation between an increasing share of foreigners in a district and the local crime rate. The same applies in particular to refugees," said ifo researcher Jean-Victor Alipour.

He emphasized that the findings align with international research, showing no connection between migration, refugee inflows, and crime rates in host countries.

The study noted that foreigners appear "overrepresented" in crime statistics relative to their population share, attributing this to their concentration in metropolitan areas, where crime rates are generally higher for both migrants and natives.

"The assumption that foreigners or refugees have a higher tendency to commit crime than demographically comparable natives is not tenable," said ifo researcher Joop Adema.

The research found no statistical link between a growing share of foreigners or refugees and violent crimes such as homicide or sexual assault.

Researchers also stressed that integrating migrants into the labor market is crucial in reducing crime.

"Providing migrants with faster access to legal earning opportunities would reduce delinquency while also helping to meet labor shortages more effectively," Alipour added.