Türkiye's climate map has shifted over 60 years: Expert

Türkiye's climate has changed significantly over the past 60 years, with warming and aridification now affecting a much larger share of the country, according to new bivariate climate maps comparing the 1960-1970 and 2015-2025 periods.

The maps were prepared by Professor Mehmet Ilicak, a faculty member at Istanbul Technical University's (ITU) Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences.

They show that areas dominated by high temperatures and low precipitation, once largely confined to southeastern Anatolia and the southern Aegean, have expanded northward to cover the Central Anatolian Plateau and much of the Aegean coast.

Large parts of Central Anatolia and surrounding areas have shifted from the "moderate temperature, low precipitation" category to the "high temperature, low precipitation" category.

The coastal strip previously in the hottest category has also shifted to a drier climate, while 3.1% of the Aegean and Marmara regions have moved up one temperature class, indicating a marked regional warming trend.

Speaking to Anadolu, Ilicak said the maps clearly show the hot and arid climate belt advancing northward.

"Many regions that were previously in the moderate temperature and low precipitation category now appear to have moved into the hottest and driest class," he said.

- COOL AND HUMID REGIONS CONTRACTING

Ilicak noted that areas historically characterized by cool and humid conditions are also contracting, with notable changes observed along the Black Sea coast and in high-altitude areas of northeastern Anatolia.

Regions such as the Eastern Black Sea coast and the Erzurum-Kars plateau, once classified under lower temperature and higher precipitation categories, now show upward shifts in temperature class, he said.

- BROWNING IN MARMARA AND AEGEAN

Ilicak described a visible climate transformation in Marmara and western Anatolia, explaining the color shift on the maps reflects one of the classic climate change signals observed across the Mediterranean Basin.

"In these regions, the rise in temperature has become so dominant that climate classes are shifting to warmer categories even without significant changes in precipitation," he said.

- MEDITERRANEAN COAST WARMING, CENTRAL ANATOLIA DRYING

Ilicak noted that along the Mediterranean coast from Antalya to Mersin, temperature classes have climbed to higher levels, with the region now more frequently falling into the highest temperature categories.

In Central Anatolia, one of the most pronounced changes is visible, with a large part of the region moving from moderate temperature and low precipitation to high temperature and low precipitation. "This points to a clear trend of aridification in Central Anatolia," he said.

Ilicak stressed that warming is visible across virtually all regions of Türkiye and is not limited to inland areas. He noted that the maps indicate strong thermal intensification across the peninsula, running parallel to rising sea surface temperatures.

"We are seeing climate classes shift to warmer categories particularly in coastal areas," he said, adding that the land-based changes observed in Türkiye align with rising sea surface temperatures in the Black Sea and surrounding seas -- a dynamic that is driving temperature categories higher along the coastline.