Five Questions about Post-Raisi Iran
The helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi crashed in a mountainous area on May 19th, 2024. The crash resulted in the death of President Raisi.
- World
- Published Date: 03:49 | 21 May 2024
- Modified Date: 04:00 | 21 May 2024
Alongside Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati, and Tabriz Friday Imam Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem also perished.
Upon Tehran's request, Türkiye deployed the AKINCI unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for search and rescue operations.
The coordinates of the helicopter wreckage identified by AKINCI were shared with Iranian authorities. Iranian teams found no survivors at the crash site.
Raisi's death has initiated many discussions about its impact on Iran's domestic politics and regional dynamics. We explore the crash and its repercussions in five questions.
- Was it an accident or an assassination?
The crash of President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter coincided with a period of heightened tension in the region. Recently, Israel, which killed thousands of innocent civilians in Gaza, targeted an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, and Tehran responded accordingly.
Although the levels of tension and responses between the two countries are debated, past assassinations in Iran bring Israel to mind.
According to Dr. Hakkı Uygur, an expert on Iran and a faculty member at the National Intelligence Academy, if this incident is linked to Israeli sabotage, denial would be easy. Only two parties would be aware of the event's background, potentially reducing tension temporarily.
- What procedure will follow?
In the event of a president dying in office, Article 131 of the Iranian constitution states that the first vice president, with the approval of the supreme leader, will assume the presidency in all state matters.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced his decision in this regard. Following Raisi's death in the helicopter crash, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will assume presidential duties until the election, as per the relevant constitutional article.
A council consisting of the vice president, parliament speaker, and judiciary head must lead the country to a new presidential election within 50 days.
Raisi was elected president in 2021, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2025 under normal circumstances.
Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, appointed as acting president, announced the presidential election date as June 28.
- What is the difference between the Supreme Leader and the President?
In Shia Islamic theology, the Supreme Leader, also known as Velayat-e Faqih, is the ultimate decision-maker in Iran. The position, established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, makes the leader the head of state and commander-in-chief.
The president, elected every four years through a scrutinized process, heads the executive branch. The president's influence on state policy and the economy depends on their personal power and relationship with the Supreme Leader.
- Where did Raisi stand in the succession debate for the Supreme Leader?
One of the significant questions raised by Raisi's death is how his absence will affect the power struggle to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
As Khamenei ages, the question of his successor has occupied academics, officials, and analysts. Due to Iran's political structure, open discussions about who will succeed Khamenei are not possible. However, analysts, officials, and academics close to the political establishment had seen both Raisi and Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as top contenders.
Analysts believe Raisi's death clears the path for Mojtaba Khamenei to become the next Supreme Leader.
Hakkı Uygur agrees, stating: "With Ebrahim Raisi completely out of the picture, Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of succeeding his father have significantly increased. Consequently, his key ally, current Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has a better chance of becoming president in the election to be held in 50 days. This unification of leadership could facilitate a smoother transition post-Khamenei."
However, experts agree that Mojtaba Khamenei's path is not without obstacles. The legacy of hereditary rule from the Shah's era remains a major concern, as the leaders of the 1979 Islamic Revolution strongly opposed any system resembling the monarchy they overthrew.
- Will Raisi's death impact Iran's regional policies?
In Iran, the Supreme Leader is the final authority on all state matters, including foreign policy and the nuclear program, not the president. Therefore, no major changes in the Islamic Republic of Iran's general policies are expected following Raisi's death.
Hakkı Uygur evaluates the situation in two ways. If the incident was an accident, Iran's known domestic and foreign policies will continue, as fundamental policies are determined by the Supreme Leader, not the president, according to the constitution.
Uygur's second assessment considers the possibility of sabotage. He explains: "Even if there was sabotage, it is unlikely to be publicly acknowledged, so regional developments may not be greatly affected. However, given the extremely tense and fragile regional balance since October 7, Iran might respond strongly to Israel if it attempts a major retaliation, potentially targeting Israeli interests within Iran or in a third country. The crucial point is that such actions must also be deniable. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that there are currently no signs or indications of sabotage."