As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on in its third year, things are at what many observers have described as a stalemate of sorts.
Neither side is making significant advances on the ground, while on the diplomatic front, efforts to end the conflict have also apparently lost steam.
For Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, the war is at a point where he expects "the situation to look the same for the next many months."
"I don't think that there has been much material change in the war really for a year-and-a-half now, where the front line is roughly where it has been," Volker said in an interview with Anadolu.
"Russia taking Bakhmut and Avdiivka sounds significant … but the reality is they don't really make a strategic difference in where Russia is and what they can do."
One critical factor, he emphasized, that could change the situation on the ground is the support Kyiv gets from its Western allies.
"It's going to take the West really providing qualitatively better level of support if Ukraine's going to make any advances," he said.
That support from the West has become somewhat of a lightning rod issue in recent months, particularly in Europe.
French President Emmanuel Macron raised eyebrows and ruffled feathers with his proposal to send Western troops to Ukraine, a suggestion that led to Russian President Vladimir Putin issuing a warning of nuclear war.
More significantly, the idea was immediately shot down by European powers like Germany, Poland and even NATO.
As for speculation of a growing divide and war fatigue on the continent, Volker believes that does not hold any ground.
"Whether it is Germany or Italy or France, you have very strong support for Ukraine and a strong commitment. Much more so than there was two years ago," said Volker.
"I think Europe has now fully internalized the idea that as long as Putin is not checked, all of Europe is at risk."
He pointed to Germany's new military aid package for Ukraine announced last month, which includes dozens more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
"This is significant for Germany. They wouldn't have even done this two years ago," said Volker.
"President Macron saying that we cannot rule out the idea of Western forces joining the fight, or at least operating inside Ukrainian territory to help give the Ukrainians some relief … reflects a very strong will in Europe."
Across the Atlantic, the problem regarding support for Ukraine is of a different nature, according to Volker, who was the U.S. special representative for Ukraine negotiations under ex-President Donald Trump.
"In the US, you have also very strong support for Ukraine, strong support for providing military assistance. The challenge, as I would describe it, in the US is prioritization because it's not the only issue," he said.
"You have a lot of concern over the US' southern border, which has largely become uncontrolled, and you have concern over the fighting in the Middle East, Gaza … and Iran's role behind all of that. So, that is something that is preoccupying a lot of people."
However, he was optimistic that the government and lawmakers will be able to navigate the roadblocks.
"I do believe that the aid package for Ukraine will be approved probably after the Congress comes back into session in the middle of April," he said.
"When you talk with people on Capitol Hill, they all say that this is going to get done and the votes are there, and that will give Ukraine some relief and support."
Volker, however, called on the Biden administration to "lift restrictions on the types of aid that the US is providing."
"We still continue to impose limits on the range of artillery … for which I find no convincing reason whatsoever. Ukraine really needs these," he asserted.
