The reverberations of the recent NATO Summit held in Lithuania continue. Within this context, two critical topics come to the forefront: Sweden's membership and Ankara's position. The emerging picture suggests that Türkiye will clear the path for Sweden in return for certain commitments from its Western allies.
In this regard, one of the issues that perhaps needs to be discussed in more detail is the defense industry. Indeed, there is a high probability that Western countries will lift direct or covert embargoes against Türkiye as a response to its support.
This situation holds significant value for our country's defense industry, initially. However, there is also another potential path to consider. Experts emphasize that in addition to lifting the embargo on Türkiye, it could be highly valuable for European allies to source defense industry products they require from Ankara, thus initiating a mutually beneficial process.
The embargo decisions made by countries like Sweden, Canada, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States following Türkiye's counterterrorism operations in Syria are still vivid in our memories. Although some countries may not officially impose an embargo on Türkiye, we are well aware of the 4-5 years of unanswered requests. In essence, this represents a different approach to saying "we are imposing an embargo on you."
At this juncture, one of the first instances that come to mind is France's refusal to provide turbojet missile engines, Germany's veto on the engines for the storm howitzer, and the refusal to sell the required engine and transmission for the Altay tank to Türkiye. Throughout this process, nearly all of Europe, the United States, and Canada had implemented embargoes that could significantly challenge Türkiye.
Anıl Şahin, a Defense Industry Researcher, is one of the closely following figures of this process. According to Şahin, if the promises made in Lithuania are fulfilled and embargoes are lifted, Ankara's position could be strengthened in certain areas.
The possibility of lifting restrictions on artillery motors, power packs for tanks, the SAMP-T air defense system, and certain obstacles in the space domain is critical. "Yes, we are already producing most of these ourselves or are in the final stages. However, we still need 3-4 years for some projects. If the promises are kept and permissions are granted, we could have significant gains in these areas," says Şahin.
We are aware that similar processes have occurred not only in Europe but also on the U.S. side. Undelivered F-35s despite payment, F-16s stuck at the Foreign Relations Council, and concrete steps that could not be taken despite the support of the U.S. President.
The meeting between Erdoğan and Biden at the NATO Summit in Lithuania perhaps facilitated the first clear progress in the F-16 matter. However, let's assume that all approvals are obtained. Is it possible to have a rapid delivery overnight?
Anıl Şahin provides an important insight to answer this question. He states that the production facilities of U.S. company Lockheed Martin will be "fully occupied" for the next 3-4 years. In other words, even if Türkiye's request is approved today, it would still be challenging to achieve the first delivery before 3-4 years.
Anıl Şahin also adds a remark about the modernization kit, stating, "We are currently in the process of modernizing our own aircraft with the F-16 Block 30 ÖZGÜR Project. If the process is further prolonged, the significance of acquiring modernization kits will diminish."
Furthermore, he makes an intriguing assessment, mentioning that the approval for Türkiye's F-16 Block 70 aircraft and the approval for providing F-35s to Greece could potentially be granted simultaneously. He emphasizes that such a move would have the potential to alter the air balance in the Aegean region until the National Combat Aircraft becomes operational.
Anıl Şahin believes that the issue of "mutual goodwill" at the NATO Summit should not only be interpreted through the lens of lifting embargoes on Türkiye. After stating, "If Western allies have promised better relations with Türkiye, then they should also demonstrate this through 'purchasing Turkish defense industry products'," he concludes his statement as follows:
"Europe is feeling the full heat of the war. The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a significant problem for the continent. Each country wants to enhance its defense capabilities on its own scale. However, they still give the impression of being dependent on certain countries, primarily the United States, while doing so.
Most of the production lines in the U.S. defense industry are occupied. European countries, left empty-handed by the U.S., turn to producers like Israel or South Korea. Yet, in recent years, Türkiye has produced some of the world's best defense industry products in their respective fields. Moreover, the competence of these systems is not limited to paper; they have proven themselves in the most challenging battlefields.
At the NATO Summit, a commitment of goodwill and mutual assistance was made between Türkiye and Western countries. They can make this process much more meaningful by exporting our defense industry products. Türkiye's artillery rockets, missiles, armored vehicles, and anti-tank systems are highly advanced. Following the success of Turkish UAVs, these products can also find their way to Europe."
