Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent the past three decades expressing concerns about Iran's nuclear program and issuing threats against the country on numerous occasions. Most recently, in September, he stated in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly that Tehran must face a "credible nuclear threat" before his office corrected the statement to "credible military threat."
Following Hamas's attack on October 7, Netanyahu now finds himself in a position where he may act on his previous warnings. The disturbing events in southern Israel have provided the Israeli prime minister with the necessary justification and international support for a broader response.
Netanyahu has both political and personal interests at stake in this situation. A prolonged regional conflict could obstruct or at least delay any official accountability for his inability to prevent the initial Hamas attack and could also lead to a postponement of his multiple corruption indictments.
Overnight, he has transitioned from a beleaguered prime minister facing failure to a wartime leader, with opposition parties showing willingness to join him in a national unity government.
He has declared a state of war and ordered an immediate response against Hamas's stronghold in Gaza. The Israeli military has initiated a forceful campaign of bombardment in the densely populated Gaza Strip, resulting in the loss of over 500 lives and preparations for a potential ground invasion.
Netanyahu has not provided details about the next phases of the conflict, but he has received unwavering support from Western governments, who are willing to do whatever it takes to "defend Israel." The U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has gone further by supplying Israel with additional arms and ammunition, deploying advanced military assets like the Ford aircraft carrier and destroyers to the Eastern Mediterranean, and reinforcing other forces in the region.
Reportedly, Biden's motivation for this escalation is strategic deterrence, intended to ensure that "no enemies of Israel can or should seek advantage from the current situation." However, historically, Israel has not allowed foreign military presence on its soil and does not require the U.S. armadas to confront Hamas.
Therefore, Biden's incentive could also be political, aimed at preventing the GOP from exploiting the Israeli crisis to his disadvantage ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. Republican opponents have already attempted to link Biden's recent prisoner swap deal with Iran, involving the release of $6 billion in Iranian assets, to the Hamas attacks.
However, Netanyahu and his cabinet may have a different agenda for the U.S. deployment, extending beyond military deterrence and political maneuvering. They may seek to expand the scope of the conflict to involve Iran.
Netanyahu's government has accused Iran of supporting and directing Hamas's operation, as it has previously alleged with other Palestinian attacks on Israelis. Many Israel supporters, neoconservatives, and media pundits in the U.S. and Europe have echoed these claims. The Wall Street Journal even reported, based on interviews with unnamed local sources, that Iranian officials and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps were directly involved in planning and orchestrating the attacks over several weeks.
U.S. officials have stated that they have not seen evidence of Tehran's involvement thus far.
For its part, Iran has characterized the attack as a spontaneous act of self-defense by Palestinians, though officials have not hidden their satisfaction at Israel's predicament. They have expressed confidence that the attack will deter further Arab, particularly Saudi, normalization with Israel and eventually lead to its downfall.
Simultaneously, Iran's ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon, has praised Hamas's operation and engaged Israeli forces in the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms, threatening greater involvement if Israel enters Gaza.
The audacity of Iran and its allies may ultimately backfire, just as Israel's arrogance did, escalating their proxy conflict toward a full-blown war.
For years, the Israeli military and intelligence services have sabotaged the Iranian nuclear program and targeted Iranian assets abroad. In turn, Iran has supported various armed groups in the Middle East, attacking allies of the U.S. and Israel.
Despite Netanyahu's rhetoric, attacking Iran would require the green light and support from the U.S. But the recent attacks have changed the game, providing the Israeli prime minister with an opportunity to pursue his desire to confront Iran by potentially misleading the Biden administration into a war.
This will not be an easy feat, considering Biden's stated commitment to ending "endless wars," exemplified by the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. His administration has also prioritized the great power competition with China and Russia, especially following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
However, the U.S. has not truly withdrawn from the Middle East but has reshuffled its forces and military assets in the region. Biden has emphasized the importance of not leaving a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran.
Once the case against Tehran's role in the attacks has been fully presented by Israel and the U.S., they may initially seek to pressure Iran into facilitating the release of Israeli captives held by Hamas, which is a top priority for Netanyahu.
If Iran refuses and employs Hezbollah as leverage against Israel, it could trigger a wider confrontation that draws the U.S. into the conflict, with unpredictable consequences. Unfortunately, in the complex world of Washington politics, unconditional U.S. support for Israel is a rare point of agreement between Republicans and Democrats.
It is essential to recognize that the situation in 2023 is far more intricate and challenging than the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which resulted in disastrous outcomes for both the U.S. and Iraq. A similar course of action against Iran would likely have even graver consequences for all parties involved.
