U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday it is "premature to declare victory" in fight against high inflation, but said the bank has started considering when to lower interest rates.
"We are moving carefully in making that assessment of whether we need to do more or not," he said in a post-meeting news conference after the Fed skipped an interest rate hike for the fourth time this year, and kept its federal funds rate unchanged between the 5.25% - 5.5% target range-the highest in 22 years.
Powell said the question to lower interest rates "begins to come into view" and it was discussed by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee during the Fed's last meeting of 2023.
While the Fed raised rates by a total of 525 basis points from March 2022 to July 2023 in 11 meetings to fight record inflation, many analysts argued that a soft landing was not possible-a situation where a central bank raises interest rates too much and too high, leading to an economic slowdown but avoiding a recession.
Powell, however, warned that the risk of a possible recession in the U.S. economy still exists.
"There is little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now," Powell said, but added: "There is always a probability that there will be a recession in the next year. It is a meaningful probability no matter what the economy is doing."
"There are certainly risks, it's certainly possible that the economy would behave in an unexpected way. It has done that repeatedly in the post-pandemic period," he further said.
