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Russian rouble strengthens before finance ministry cuts FX sales

Reuters ECONOMY
Published March 06,2023
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The rouble strengthened on Monday, pulling away from the 76 mark against the dollar on the support of relatively high oil prices before the finance ministry this week reduces its foreign currency sales, which could pressure the Russian currency.

By 0958 GMT, the rouble was 0.4% stronger against the dollar at 75.34 and had gained 0.3% to trade at 80.02 versus the euro. It firmed 0.7% against the yuan to 10.85.

From Tuesday, the finance ministry will decrease its daily FX sales to 5.4 billion roubles ($71.4 million) for the upcoming month, down from 8.9 billion roubles a day.

Russia is selling yuan rather than the currencies of what it terms "unfriendly" Western countries, underscoring the growing importance of China's currency in Moscow's efforts to ensure economic stability amid Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine.

The reduction in foreign currency sales means less support for the rouble, said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko-Invest.

"But it must be remembered that higher taxes will also require higher foreign currency sales by exporters, so the net effect on the exchange rate will be insignificant," Polevoy said.

Nevertheless, the rouble is still close to 10-month lows, hurt by geopolitical uncertainty, reduced export revenues and higher imports.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 0.8% at $85.2 a barrel, but still near two-week highs.

Russian stock indexes were higher, touching months-long highs.

The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.8% higher at 2,290.3 points, after earlier reaching 2,292.99 points, its strongest reading since Sept. 20, 2022. The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 1.3% at 957.7 points.

"We have noted more than once that these days, the absence of bad news is already good news," said Sinara Investment Bank in a note.

"If oil continues to appreciate, then alongside a neutral geopolitical backdrop, the stock market could target 2,300 points this week."