Speaking to the Daily Sabah on the recent crises in Turkish-U.S. relations, Galatasaray University faculty member and former EU Minister Prof. Dr. Beril Dedeoğlu expressed that the U.S. President Donald Trump administration is pursuing the "brinkmanship" policy, which is about punishing other countries for deviating from a set course, against Turkey. Dedeoğlu asserted that Turkey's only fault was preferring negotiations in order to establish peace and alliance in the region. "In Trump's mind, the people of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel do not exist. There are only governments or leaders there who are prepared to implement his policies. Turkey refutes this by affirming these peoples existence," she said.
Dedeoğlu stated that the U.S. is not the only power in the global system and underscored the impracticality of Trump's policies. She said issues between the two countries emerged due to different strategic outlooks, she said the F-35 issue and issues related to American pastor Andrew Brunson could be resolved separately. "It seems that the U.S. has become more aggressive because of its waning power. If the country was sure of its power, it wouldn't pursue such policies. However, Trump says that these policies have been beneficial in the short-term; indicators show the same as well. Yet, it's all about sustainability. It's not possible to determine its sustainability; on the other hand, Turkey never had a policy of siding with China just because the U.S. is losing power," said Dedeoğlu.
She stated that the crisis between the U.S. and Turkey could be an opportunity for Turkey's relations with the EU. The relations between the two countries could turn around within six months she commented, and said that hardliners may replace Trump in the case of his departure, adding such a shift could lead to more predictable relations between the countries.
Employing economic mechanisms to put pressure on countries
Dedeoğlu asserted that putting pressure on a country through economic mechanisms is used in near-war situations. She commented that embargoes could be legitimized despite infringing international law as in the cases of Turkey and Iran, she asserted putting an embargo on an ally which is a part of the same economic model is very unusual. In this respect, referring to Maslow, Dedeoğlu claimed that the current U.S. administration has a hammer and sees everything as a nail.
According to her, Trump prioritizes U.S. interests in both strategic and trade relations, while aiming to punish all countries which deviate from his own strategy. Dedeoğlu affirmed that Trump managed his own companies in the same way and that these companies went bankrupt. Stressing on the unsustainability of these policies and the U.S. not being the only power in the world, she said such policies would necessitate a monopolar system instead of the current multipolar one.
Dedeoğlu added that Trump is trying to keep his promises as the November elections draw closer, although she said she thinks he will not be able to keep them. "I'm wondering how he will explain the situation to the U.S. constituents. If Trump had asked Turkey to help him out in elections, Turkey would've found a way for him to use the pastor. Yet, it's next to impossible now," she commented.
Bigger picture of the US foreign policy
Recalling Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia and his memorable globe pose, Dedeoğlu claimed a promise was made there and a new alliance was established. She stated that this new alliance is expanding and already includes countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt which could ensure dominance over the Mediterranean. She asserted that Turkey is the last piece of this puzzle and pressure is on Turkey in a bid to coerce the country to accept its role in this alliance.
Meanwhile, Dedeoğlu said that Turkey suggests keeping Iran close instead of pushing the country further away from the global system as it could exacerbate radicalism. "However, Trump says that [Former U.S. President Barack] Obama has done this and that he will do the opposite. In this respect, Turkey's only "fault" is preferring multilateral negotiations in order to establish peace and alliance in the region, while Trump emphasizes bilateral relations and strategic balances. In Trump's mind, people of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel do not exist. There are only governments or leaders who are prepared to implement his policies. Turkey refutes this by affirming these peoples' existence," she added.
Brinkmanship policies
Touching on diverging strategic outlooks of Turkey and the U.S., Dedeoğlu stated that the pressure on Turkey should be seen as an outcome of the U.S.'s brinkmanship. She stressed that the F-35 jets and Brunson issues could be isolated and resolved separately, but new issues are being generated constantly which are indicative of a strategic division between the countries. She said "Instead of discussing the strategic division, we're forced to talk about individual issues. This is actually a tactic of the U.S. We're talking about the pastor's extradition while the real matter is something else. If we release the pastor, the U.S. will find another issue; that is unless we resolve the most fundamental issues."
Middle East cannot be managed over a map at the White House
Dedeoğlu asserted that Middle East cannot be managed over a map at the White House as balances in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Black Sea and Caspian regions are different from each other.
Claiming the U.S. could be more successful by cooperating with Turkey, she stated that Turkey is only against being forced into taking certain actions instead of cooperation. "While Turkey and the U.S. are cooperating, the U.S. suddenly changes its mind; however, it either doesn't tell Turkey about this change of mind or tells it at such a point where Turkey is unable to disengage immediately. There's a difference between the U.S.'s and Turkey's withdrawals from Syria; the U.S. could immediately pack its equipment and withdraw while this isn't the case for Turkey," she said. Stressing that this has happened in Libya.
Dedeoğlu asserted that the U.S. has let Turkey down and then accused Turkey of acting arbitrarily which, she claimed, is at the root of the disagreements between Turkey and the U.S.
Stating Trump follows similar policies toward other countries Dedeoğlu said that it is not definite whether Trump will remain president. She added that his temper determines his attitude towards a country, not allowing countries to set a medium-term policy due to his unpredictability. "He says he gets along with Merkel but not with Germany. One day he says he's going to destroy North Korea, the next he meets with the country's leader. Similarly, he puts pressure on Iran, then says he is open to negotiation. This is incomprehensible and makes it harder for countries to adopt a policy toward the U.S.," Dedeoğlu said. She expressed the need to render the unpredictable predictable while adding that Turkey has to build new alliances which may include Europe or the U.S. business world to realize this.
Talking about the possibility of Trump's departure from office, Dedeoğlu asserted that a hardliner administration could replace Trump. She claimed that despite the disadvantages of having a hardliner administration which could have harsher policies than Trump, a hardliner administration would be more predictable and open to negotiations.
Economic crisis in Turkey could have far-reaching consequences in Europe
Dedeoğlu said that Germany's approach to a possible economic crisis in Turkey is crucial as it would cause issues in Germany's trade with Turkey. Asserting countries emphasize their interests and gains in relations with other countries, she affirmed that a possible economic crisis could result in social instability in Turkey which could lead to increased immigration to Germany and Europe. Dedeoğlu suggested that Germany might think Turkey will allow Syrian refugees' passage to Europe to relieve the economic pressure.
"Turkey and Germany have joint defense projects. If Turkey is in a dire economic situation, Germany won't be able to receive funds for these projects. Along with the aforementioned reasons, this is why Germany states it wants the Turkish economy to be stable," she commented. On the other hand, Dedeoğlu claimed that the crisis between the U.S. and Turkey might pave the way for Turkey applying for European funds and to improved trade relations between Turkey and Europe.
The possibility of an alliance between Russia, China and Turkey
Regarding the establishment of a possible alliance between Russia, China and Turkey, Dedeoğlu asserted that such an alliance should be temporary rather than permanent as it could put Turkey in a worse position, considering both Russia and China are world powers with significant military capacities. Suggesting Turkey's most essential issue is to counterbalance the geographically near Russia with the U.S., she affirmed that if Turkey was a Caucasian country, it could've relied on Russia; however, according to her, as Turkey is trying to keep balanced relations, this option is out of the question. "Whenever Turkey has a crisis with the U.S., Russia has some propositions. These should be taken with a grain of salt as Russia is trying to benefit from this crisis. Long-term repercussions of a permanent alliance should be calculated. When there is a security issue in the Black Sea, for instance, Turkey might find itself in a tight spot. This is why Turkey is being cautious," added Dedeoğlu.
Stating that Russia is pursuing expansionist policies, Syria being one of the examples of said policies, Dedeoğlu urged Turkey not to be a part of these policies. She asserted that it is not definite whether Putin aims to take Turkey under his wings or to use the country as a bargaining chip against the U.S. "It's definite that Russia wants to keep Turkey near. If the U.S. loses the Black Sea, Turkey will be between a rock and a hard place which are the U.S. and Russia respectively. Therefore, Turkey could cooperate with Russia to thwart economic crises but cannot change its side completely," she commented.
What Turkey should do?
According to Dedeoğlu, Turkey should follow two tracks at the same time, the first being mechanisms employed daily or weekly which could thwart crises and the second the implementation of permanent policies. She addressed the need for immediate political and economic reforms while stressing that the society is prepared for these reforms. Moreover, she also highlighted the necessity of a new foreign policy discourse which will emphasize peace and international cooperation. "Unlike Trump's conflictual discourse, we need new peaceful and cooperative initiatives; some of these could be developed by Turkey while the others could be peace projects," said Dedeoğlu.
Meanwhile, Dedeoğlu emphasized the importance of multilateral and pluralist policies while adding that having an extensive network of relations will benefit Turkey. She said Turkey's relations with both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia could be applied to anywhere in the world. On the other hand, she also signified the need for a new public diplomacy as the foreign press has a sway on Turkey's agenda. "Our agenda is determined by two factors: Erdoğan's statements and the foreign press. Actually, we should be able to determine what the foreign press writes about us. We should discuss our own wants and demands, not another's. This indicates that our public diplomacy is deficient; we should redesign it immediately," she said.
Turkey should take precautions proactively
Regarding foreign policy, Dedeoğlu stated that precautions should be taken especially in issues that could possibly develop into crises. Turkey has to determine what to do, with whom and how to do it beforehand, she affirmed that these will allow Turkey to become a constructive intermediary between the conflicted countries. She remarked "Such actions would increase international trust in Turkey in terms of both economy and politics. Yes, we have experienced a coup attempt but we're back on our feet. We should persuade the world that we seek to improve our democracy; I believe this trust will eventually return."
Waning US power
Commenting on allegations that the U.S. has lost its power, Dedeoğlu said such allegations do not reflect reality. She asserted that the U.S. continues to maintain and increase its power despite at a comparatively slower rate; however, according to her, the U.S. is still far ahead of all other countries.
Moreover, Dedeoğlu stated that a country's capacity to employ power and deficiencies determine its actual power. Giving an example, Dedeoğlu said that having a large population does not mean much if half of this population is starving.
Regarding the U.S.' recent aggressive stance, Dedeoğlu said "It seems that the U.S. has become more aggressive because of its waning power. If the country was sure of its power, it wouldn't pursue such policies. However, Trump says that these policies have been beneficial in the short-term; indicators show the same as well. Yet, it's all about sustainability. It's not possible to determine its sustainability; on the other hand, Turkey never had a policy of siding with China just because the U.S. is losing power. This isn't a viable path in foreign policy."
Meanwhile, speaking on the U.S. press's allegations that Turkey's axis is shifting towards Russia, Dedeoğlu stated these allegations are being discussed abroad because it is dominant in Turkish popular opinion. Stressing that a Saudi prince has visited Russia for the first time in history and signed trade and defense agreements, she affirmed shift of axis arguments were not made for Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, Dedeoğlu claimed that there is not a significant divergence between Putin and Trump in terms of political outlook and that they agree on most matters: "In this respect, shift of axis argument is popular because it allows Turkey's government to be criticized; unfortunately, this was our doing. I don't believe there is such a choice being made. I know one can't see the whole picture by just looking at today; however, this is what I see."
Lastly, Dedeoğlu underscored the importance of keeping economic and trade channels open to prevent political or strategic disagreements from transforming into crises. Similarly, she emphasized political and diplomatic channels open for economic and trade disagreements. "Turkey possibly had issues in balancing these factors from time to time; yet, I believe it will be taken into consideration in future decisions. Otherwise, you are left without channels to communicate. Turkey will probably try to increase the number of its friends, especially in terms of economy," remarked Dedeoğlu.
Dedeoğlu, Turkey should follow two tracks at the same time, the first being mechanisms employed daily or weekly which could thwart crises and the second the implementation of permanent policies. She addressed the need for immediate political and economic reforms while stressing that the society is prepared for these reforms. Moreover, she also highlighted the necessity of a new foreign policy discourse which will emphasize peace and international cooperation. "Unlike Trump's conflictual discourse, we need new peaceful and cooperative initiatives; some of these could be developed by Turkey while the others could be peace projects," said Dedeoğlu. Meanwhile, Dedeoğlu emphasized the importance of multilateral and pluralist policies while adding that having an extensive network of relations will benefit Turkey. She said Turkey's relations with both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia could be applied to anywhere in the world. On the other hand, she also signified the need for a new public diplomacy as the foreign press has a sway on Turkey's agenda. "Our agenda is determined by two factors: Erdoğan's statements and the foreign press. Actually, we should be able to determine what the foreign press writes about us. We should discuss our own wants and demands, not another's. This indicates that our public diplomacy is deficient; we should redesign it immediately," she said.
